CheetahhhhhhhBlog Mark III

So our panel of judges has looked at things carefully and here are The Best and Worst awards.

BEST AMERICAN BANK ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPAT: That would be Schwab Bank, hands down. Not even any close competition, Schwab Bank is the reigning king. No foreign ATM or debit charges. These charges can really add up. For example last week I withdrew $600 from my ING Direct account and my foreign transaction charge was $20, plus I lost another 1-2% in the currency conversion. Schwab doesn’t try to steal your money, God bless ‘em.

WORST AMERICAN BANK ACCOUNT FOR AN EXPAT: Bank of America. There’s the crappy exchange rate and then the $10 foreign transaction fee. Fuck ‘em. They can kiss my ass.

BEST AMERICAN CREDIT CARD FOR AN EXPAT: That would be Capital One, which calculates the exchange rate at the going bank rate. Most banks make a lot of money off you by giving you their own (really bad) exchange rate. Often a purchase can cost 5% or more extra. Capital One, those nice guys, charge you the rate right off of XE.com.

WORST CREDIT CARD FOR AN EXPAT: That would be HSBC Philippines. Those knuckleheads give you an exchange rate that makes you lost 10-15%. Robbery. Sheer robbery. I don’t ever use their credit card except when I’m in the Philippines.

Every country has things which are irritating for a foreigner. If you are an expat you become very laissez-faire about irritation. In the Philippines we have places running out of stock (such as McDonald’s last night), random power blackouts, and taxis which have no air conditioning and can’t make change for P100 ($2). I’m laissez-faire about the whole thing but last night I couldn’t get a Big Mac because “wala stock”. Whatever. Really, whatever.

Bug refuses to go to a barber. Has refused for about a year now. So Vanessa cuts his hair. He’s getting a trim right now. One of the problems with a 3 year old is it’s difficult to force him to do anything, because of screaming, flopping around on the floor, etc.

Tristan has started eating real food, such as crackers and mango, and his primary obsession is watching for food. He starts screaming if you don’t feed him quick enough, he wants all the food in his mouth immediately. Tristan has a very charming smile and is quite popular here at the condo.

Some kids were roughhousing in the kiddy pool and Bug ended up getting tossed into the big pool. I had him within about 20 seconds. Instinctually he kept his head above water and doggie-paddled. I got him out and he wanted to run home. For the rest of the night he talked about how I rescued him. He thanked me about 25 times. I’m a rescue hero. I told him to relax, he’s ok, it’s no big deal. Big damn deal for him though. I suppose that was his first good scare.

Tristan is crawling around a lot. He’s like a cat, always trying to make a break for the front door.

Not a lot going on. As before, we’re not spending money, which means our life isn’t very interesting.

This point aside, I must say that business is good. Teggatz Enterprises is up about 30% for the year.

I’ve been on the Google bandwagon since they started up actually, and I really think they’re one of the very best companies out there, and emblematic of American innovation and entrepreneurship. So today they stopped co-towing to the Reds (the Chinese government) and stopped censoring their website. I say three cheers for Google.

Actually, I will be candid with you, I don’t like the Chinese. Perhaps my mind will change and I’m open to change, but everything I know about them makes me dislike them. I’m not speaking about individual Chinese people, who I’m sure are nice enough. I taught some Chinese girls in Korea and they were OK. I’m speaking about the government. I suppose I still haven’t gotten over the excesses of the Cultural Revolution and Tienanmen Square. I am also not amenable to the Chinese cultural practice of eating anything, such as dogs and snakes. Perhaps my opinion can be changed. I say this in reference to my previous post about investing in China. Perhaps my viewpoint is colored. It’s always possible. You have the benefit with me that at least I admit I don’t like the Chinese.

From the perspective of investing, I should point out, however, that my previous comments about investing in China actually apply to most third-and-second-world countries, such as India and Russia. I think you’re a fool if you put your money into them. It’s not just China. For example I dated an Indian girl, but I tell you don’t invest in India. So I don’t think I’m wearing blinders with this, but maybe.

Further, you should be aware that because of globalization, and because of electronic trading, world markets have become closely intertwined. As a result you don’t really get the diversification from investing in, say, Chile, that you might expect. Emblematic of this is the fact that in 2007 America coughed, and the rest of the world caught the flu.

Now, the only person I write this investment advice for is my mother, and I’m not even sure she pays much attention or acts upon it. However I will point out another blinder. This is something no other investment analyst will tell you. So here goes. Teggatz Enterprises is in the business of selling options. An options seller makes money when the market does not move significantly. So Teggatz Enterprises is looking for investments that don’t move. This is a potential blinder. As a wise man (anonymous) once said, “We see what we want to see, unless we consciously try to see what is really there.” I always remember this before I make an investment decision.

Anyway the default setting for investment at the moment is buy. I don’t know if this is wise or safe, but we still have the economy on life support, so at least for the near future, this should generate income. The purview of the “near future” is short these days. By the “near future” I mean until, say, May 1st. Beyond that who knows.

The House has passed the health care reform bill. I’m not sure what will happen next, as I find the whole drama a tad annoying. I was behind health care reform way back in the Clinton presidency, and I can’t really understand why anybody except the health care industry would oppose it, and I really fail to see why there has been this animated debate about something that, to me, is just really frakkin obvious. Anyway I presume the bill will now go to Obama to be signed into law.

Tristan is OK now after his hospital visit. There’s not a lot going on in Cheetopia, because we’re not spending money, which means we’re not doing anything. Like any huge metropolis, it costs money to have an interesting life.

The stock market futures are up a bit after the health care bill passed, which surprises me, but anything is possible these days. I can’t prognosticate beyond what I said previously, and anybody who tells you what’s going on is either guessing or a fool. Indeed the only smart thing right now is to sit on your cash. There are, unfortunately, people such as myself who need to make money. We are in a difficult position, because it is impossible to gauge the market beyond a very short window, say 30 days at a stretch. Most of my energy these days is spent trying to identify equities that are behaving predictably. There aren’t many. Walgreens is on. The Potash Company was until I bought it, then it joined the general mania of the rest of the market. Yes, Teggatz Enterprises is invested in Potash fertilizer, believe it or not.

People toss around the word “bubble” a lot these days. I suppose that’s because it’s hard to find an American who has not been harmed by financial bubbles recently. In the past two decades we’ve had the tech bubble in 2001, the food prices bubble in 2008-9, the real estate bubble, and these are just the ones that everybody knows about. But for example I’d say gold is a bubble. Yesterday a financial commentator described China as “the biggest bubble in history” and I agree, and I’d expand that to most of these third-and-second-world countries that people are foolishly pouring their money into. But let’s just focus on China. People are rushing to pour money into China, yet the government is not at all transparent nor, for that matter, entirely responsible. Chinese goods are notoriously poor quality, indeed it’s been shown repeatedly that Chinese manufacturers have no qualms about using lead paint on toys, or poisons in milk. Chinese factories themselves are worse than sweatshops. The vast majority of Chinese have an extremely low standard of living, actually, despite all this talk of the Chinese tiger roaring. There is little or no oversight, accounting standards, or plans for sustainability. I could go on. If this was an American company I was describing, nobody would invest a nickel in it. Yet for some reason people are all excited to throw their money at China Inc. Eh, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

If I was going to make a bet on the future, I’d bet on Brazil. They’re where America was 100 years ago. They have tremendous natural resources (India and China, in contrast, do not).

Latest news flash, Tristan was overcome with vomiting last night and spent the night in the hospital. He’s OK now. The doctor gave him a dextrose drip. He had gastroenteritis.

I write a stock market commentary primarily to give my mother my opinion. I’m not sure anybody else cares what I think about the stock market. Here’s what I think.

Volumes on the New York Stock Exchange are very low, and have been for a long time. This reflects a general disinterest in stock investing, which in turn is a reflection of the extremely unclear status of the stock market. Nobody really knows what’s going on, and that includes the professionals. You know that nobody knows what’s going on when the Wall Street Journal comments upon this fact (yesterday). Nobody knows what’s going on because the economy is on artificial life support. We have a recovery without job growth, which is a preposterous contradiction. There is a lot of global uncertainty thrown into the mix, such as sovereign debt worries, and the probability of the Chinese economy overheating. Because of these factors, and others, anybody who gives you an opinion about what the market will do is just guessing. In truth, there is nowhere safe to put your money at the moment. I know, because damn if I haven’t been spending 14 hour days looking for somewhere safe.

The market will probably exhibit very high volatility for the near term. This means, in layman’s terms, that the market will whip around a lot without making much real progress. There are various technical reasons why I predict this, but the truth is anything is possible. Most analysts predict a decline in the second and third quarters of this year, and a rise in the fourth. Most predict the S&P500 closing at around 1300 at the end of this year. I’m not sure what their reasons are for predicting this, and I’d say it’s as good a guess as any in a completely unpredictable environment. But I wouldn’t put your money on it.

If you saw the pictures Vanessa posted on Facebook, you’ll know that our condo has a beautiful pool and clubhouse. Grandpa enjoyed it when he was here. Bug and I go swimming twice a day. He has a nice tan going. Bug has melanin unlike the Cheetahhhhhhh so he does more than just burn to a bright pink.

Clive Cussler has a new Oregon Files book out. I downloaded it immediately. Clive is one of my favorite “junk” reads. By “junk” I mean that he’s not an artist or anything, but entertaining. Cussler’s books are all undersea adventures. My other favorite junk author is WEB Griffin, for WWII adventure.

I have been suffering from some extreme stress. Plus my stomach problems are back with a vengeance. I’ve taken the trouble to research my stomach this time rather than relying on a doctor. Sorry to say but I have never had much faith in the medical profession, ever since I realized about 15 years ago that most of the time they were just making hypotheses about a patient’s condition. And I can do that myself most of the time, fer chrissake. Now, with the stress, it’s a pity I have no valium. They’re a controlled substance here, unfortunately. Valium would really hit the spot with the stress. But I am taking other measures to reduce stress, such as making a point of not working all day long. I also float around in the pool a lot, which is good for stress. And regarding my stomach, I have adopted some dietary changes based on websites I read. Big meals get the stomach juices flowing, which is a problem for me, so I am eating small meals and snacking. I never have been a snacker so this is a big change. My stomach is reacting well to the change. I am also working on the hypothesis that my stomach is sensitive to fat, because this is common among people with my condition, and today I made a point of eating as little fat as possible. My stomach has given me no trouble today. We’ll see how it goes.

Tristan is trying to stand. Today he surprised us and used the Bug’s bed to prop himself up on his feet. He also calls me “ba”.

Bernard Cornwell is one of my favorite writers, and I really love his Alfred the Great series. I was all excited for months about the next installment, the Burning Land. I was tremendously pissed when some publishing dispute between McMillan and Amazon delayed the release of the Burning Land for the Kindle until March 1st. Well, on March 1st I downloaded it with trembling hands and read. I have to say, Cornwell lost a bit of spark with this one. It’s still good, but not like before. I’m not sure why, but I have observed that the first works of an author are usually his best. Cornwell is a very prolific guy, he has about 50 books to his name, and most of them were pretty good, so maybe he was just a little off his stride while writing this one.

We were trying to live without air conditioning as an austerity measure. Apparently it’s OK without aircon in June, the rainy season. Right now it’s pretty frakkin hot on Luzon island and Van was getting very crabby. We have the air conditioners running again.

I read that the average hedge fund is up 1% for the year, and the S&P500 is about -.25%. So I suppose Teggatz Enterprises is going gangbusters, because we’re up about 13% after expenses.

I will give a brief opinion about the market. I don’t think it’s going to rise much more. I think we’re coming up on May, and you should sell in may and go away, because the market enters the “summer doldrums”. Further, the Fed will end quantitative easing at some point, and the market will begin pricing this in. By “pricing this in” I mean that traders will start anticipating an end to Fed liquidity measures, and this has bearish, or in the very least neutral, implications. Furthermore the NASDAQ and S&P500 right now have a chart pattern of a double top, which is bearish. Furthermore it will take a lot for the NASDAQ and S&P500 to rise above their double tops, I think. I anticipate we will see a lot of sideways movement. However if there’s one thing a trader should have learned in the last year, it’s to not underestimate the current bull market. It’s on steroids. So we may still see a rise. However I doubt it, and I’ll tell you why. There is very low volume on the stock exchange. This means institutional investors, such as mutual funds etc, are sitting on their hands. Now, this low volume is also indicative of a big shift out of US equities into emerging market equities, but this shift should actually reverse pretty soon, as even the Wall Street Journal is starting to talk about an emerging market asset bubble. This blog was pointing it out to you a long time ago. I read in the Financial Times that several hedge funds are getting out of emerging markets. but to return to my point, the low volume on Wall Street suggests that the market is running out of steam. As usual I could be totally wrong.