CheetahhhhhhhBlog Mark III

The SEC together with the Fed has been tossing around the notion of further regulating the commodities industry, decoupling investment banks from commercial banks, etc etc. All of this concerns me insofar as it may significantly impact my business. What is currently my only business, options trading. There is already one significant impact that I know of: highly leveraged ETFs now require higher margin. I don’t know if the option requires higher margin, haven’t tried to trade one yet. But I’ve been too busy what with escaping from Dubai, etc, so I just can’t keep up with all the nonsense floating around Washington at the moment, and in sum I am extremely concerned about regulation which may impact my ability to conduct business. MAY is the key word here. My business is pretty gentle and not even Obama can point any accusatory finger at me. I trade hedged vertical calls on the major indexes. Otherwise known as iron condor spreads. Nobody could accuse me of recklessly speculating and thus causing financial catastrophe. So my guess would be that my business will not be impacted by Washington. However I’m keeping my fingers crossed.

I’m reluctant to make any financial prognostication because I’ve been slightly wrong for the last two months. I wasn’t precisely wrong, as the market has indeed continued to rise, but I wasn’t precisely right in my predictions either. This caveat aside (my traditional “I’ve been wrong and will be again” speech) here are some things I will speculate on:

1. I wouldn’t trade during the first week of January. It is too volatile, as the various funds are jumping back in after the end of the tax year. So trillions of dollars are moving quickly and it is wise to wait and see which direction they’re going to move.
2. I am still bullish on the market as a whole, primarily because the Obama administration cannot let this zombie on life support collapse. Politically they can’t let the rally falter. So if necessary they will throw a few more handfulls of cash at Wall Street. So for this reason alone, yeah, I’m bullish.
3. The direction of gold and the US dollar are big question marks in my head. I see gold falling and the dollar rising, but I have read a lot of analysis to the contrary, and gold and the dollar are by no means my specialty, except insofar as they usually have a correlation (or inverse correlation) to the broader index. I see gold as a bubble, which is why I see it falling. People were freaked out during the economic catastrophe and put their money in gold. Now things are normalizing, so they’re going to put it in the stock market, which means in most cases the dollar, which means the dollar will rise. That’s my prediction anyway.
4. I’ve lost a lot of money on Citibank so far but I haven’t been tempted to sell them once, and I’ll tell you why. They’re the only truly global US bank. They’re still owned by Uncle Sam which is good. They’ll be retaining their top people now since they’re out of TARP. And they have quietly amassed a market cap of over 100 billion. They are an unstable and fishy bank because of fishy accounting. What derivative is more complex than C stock? Who can say what it’s really worth? I doubt even the president of C. HOWEVER I’d say it’s worth a hell of a lot more than $3.5 indeed I’d put the value of C slightly below BAC or Wells Fargo, so I’d put it in the $12 range. I hope I’m right about this because it will make me a lot of money if I am.
5. I see the market rising through May, and then reserve my thoughts. This is because of the old commodities adage “Sell in May and go away.”
6. I see the broader markets rise as rather gradual, and that’s because it needs to break through a ton of technical support levels. For example RUT is butting its head against its downward trend line.

So we got to Manila yesterday afternoon. I’m now sitting in a Gloria Jean’s cafe using their wifi. The trip itself was a little rough, because Van and I couldn’t sleep much. One or the other child was always up and about. This whole move out of the Emirates has been hard on the Bug, who broke down crying several times, saying he wants to “go back to Daddy’s truck and go to daddy’s house”. We’ve actually been mentally preparing him for several days now, telling him we’re “going to get on a plane, go to Nila, and get a new daddy’s house”. However how can a 3 year old really process all this. So in summary I think this has been roughest on the Bug. We’re in the Holiday Inn Galleria, which has one of the Ortigas malls below it. So Bug and I went down to Toys R Us and he discovered Dinosaur King action figures, which were never available in Dubai, and this lightened his mood considerably. Anyway, me and Vanessa, we’re considerably de-stressed already. All the stress of getting out of the UAE in lightning time is behind us. We have a few issues to deal with next but they’re fairly minor in comparison and I’m putting off all decision making until after the New Year, as we deserve a break.

So a happy 2010 to everybody!

We’re at Le Meridien Fairway in Dubai. This is our Dubai hotel. We stayed here when Tristan was born. Anyway our stuff is all on a boat bound for Manila, departing Jan 1st. We should have our stuff by the end of Jan, which is sooner than we expected. We’re currently eating Meridien room service and using their outrageously expensive wireless. Eh I’ve long ago given up trying to avoid these sort of expenses while traveling. Traveling is a big damn pain in the ass however you look at it. You make it into an even bigger pain in the ass by avoiding room service, etc., then you’re just going to be miserable.

ANYWAY the big news is Tristan is American. I collected his passport and consular birth certificate an hour ago.

So I really recommend having professional movers come and pack you up. Takes a hell of a lot of the stress out of moving. Due to my recent stress overload (detailed in recent posts) I’m still stressed anyway but thankfully don’t actually have to do anything except watch the guys box everything up. Bug is having the time of his life, running around among the boxes and workers, he thinks it’s all great fun. Another thing is that professional movers do a much better job than I would ever have managed. They’re boxing up everything, even the furniture, washer, fridge, stove, etc. Wrapping stuff in waterproof tear-resistant fabric. All very fancy. This aspect of the move cost AED3000 or about $800. Of course I’m not paying for it, the university is, thank God.

I still have a few stresses. Let’s see. Tomorrow we get the stuff in the shipping container, get the invoice and insurance. Then we go in to Dubai to the American embassy, where little Tristan’s US passport better damn well be waiting for us as promised. The consular officer said it would be there “for sure” on the 28th and I take a consular officer at her word when she says “for sure” since, generally speaking, it is rather impossible to get the US government to say “for sure” about anything. Tomorrow I also have to get the last of my money and wire it out of here. I paid off my credit card but there is a hold on an additional $4000 just in case some charge comes through. So I am waiting to get $4000 which should happen tomorrow or at the latest Tuesday before we leave. This is a small stress as $4000 is a lot of money to me. Then we have to get through Dubai customs and exit the country. Presumably this can be accomplished with no difficulty though there could be a wrinkle or two here, eg, I owe a parking ticket in Dubai…. Then after getting out of the country, there are a few imponderables which stress me. The shipping container is being put in Vanessa’s name and presumably she will not be taxed for importing her own household goods into the Philippines. However her surname is Teggatz and so some port official might just invent a “tax,” if you know what I mean. This kind of thing is very common in the Philippines. However that’s a stress for later and hopefully there will be no problem. We shipped things in from Saudi with no problems. There are a couple other stresses but I’ve compartmentalized them for later.

I said it before and I’ll say it again. This December has been a total stress overload. Seriously. I can feel the tension in my body, even in my fingers. Once we actually get on the airplane in 2 days, I think my stress will drop dramatically.

Well we had a nice CHristmas with grandma and Aunty Nene. We are however concerned about my nephew Aldo, who was in the emergency room over Christmas.

All in all, Vanessa and I agree that 2009 was a damn rough year and we’re happy to see it go. We had Tristan, which was a blessing. He’s a happy, handsome, healthy boy. Also 2009 made me semi-financially-independent. So 2009 wasn’t all bad. But really it’s been nothing but stress and trouble otherwise. Early in January 2009, the global economic meltdown hit the Emirates like a tsunami, and then George Mason University collapsed, and then the management who took over the university were just the most complete idiots I’ve ever encountered in a fairly long academic career, and then I get laid off from the new university. In short, 2009 was nothing but trouble and good riddance.

The guys are coming to pack us up tomorrow. Costs AED3000 for them to pack everything up so they better do a good job. Van will be supervising them carefully I’m sure.

Then Monday they load everything up into a container. We will have to wait until the end of Feb for our stuff to arrive in Manila.

Tuesday we stay for one night in a Dubai hotel. Wednesday afternoon we fly out to Manila. Staying there until the 7th, at the Holiday Inn Galleria in Ortigas if anybody wants to come visit. Then on the 7th we fly to Capoocan. 10th Tristan is getting baptized. We should be heading off to Boracay shortly thereafter. I really need a dose of Bora.

Seriously, I really need a dose of Bora. By which I mean the perfect South Seas beach. I really need it. I’ve been stressed to the hilt the last 2 weeks. To the point where I now understand how people have nervous breakdowns and heart attacks from stress. This whole sphere of things was incomprehensible until recently, I just had no frame of reference. Now I do. Indeed my mom supplied me with a bit of Valium to relax. It helped. I’m already de-stressing. I’ve been paid out, my work is done, the suitcases are packed. We just need to supervise the Bengali movers and then get on a plane. The stress is over. Nevertheless the whole buildup of nervous tension in my body…. agg! So to say the least, a little dose of Bora is just what the doctor ordered.

Christmas is coming, the goose is getting fat. Well actually we’re going to have a Butterball for Christmas with grandma and aunty Nene. We went and did our final Christmas shopping in the Mall of the Emirates yesterday.

Went to my favorite store, Tommy Bahama. Love that place. You know what Tommy Bahama sells? The whole idea of living on a tropical island. Which actually I do. CheetahhhhhhhhLair #1 is, as most of you know, on the Isle of Leyte. You walk ten feet from my house and you’re looking into a tropical lagoon with a dormant volcano at one end. It’s like something out of South Pacific. Now, if only Leyte was like the atmosphere inside a Tommy Bahama store. Tommy Bahama is selling a beautiful idea. Palm trees. Sand. Daiquiris. Girls in grass skirts. A beautiful vision of life. If only the reality didn’t include abject poverty, nothing to eat except fish and pig, poor sanitation, electricity that works only when it’s in the mood, people who should be used to the idea of a white guy staring at you endlessly for hours like you’re the most interesting thing they’ve seen in months (which you might just be, actually)… eh, don’t get me wrong. Bug will love Cpaoocan no doubt. We’ll go to Carigusan beach resort. I’m vaguely contemplating buying a farm that somebody wants to sell, though I’m going to offer them an outrageously low price (since I don’t have a job), which would put me into the copra (dried coconut meat) business. Capoocan has its good points and some of the whole Tommy Bahama ideal really is there in Capoocan. But anyway you get my point.

Van got some secret presents. Bug is getting a robot triceratops. Yes, he really does want a robot triceratops.

I have roughly 2 more classes to teach, depending on attendance, and then an exam, which will be a very simple matter since I only have 2 students.

I have had high blood pressure for a while now. I can feel the tension in my back. But it’s starting to go down, everything seems to be under control. I should have my airline tickets tomorrow. My Christmas shopping is done. I should be fully paid out by Wednesday, which means my money should be in America by Thursday. Next Sunday some Bengali guys should be coming to pack us up. Next Monday they should take our stuff to Dubai and put it in a container. Next Wednesday we should be on a plane to Manila. As I said, everything seems to be under control. A wrench could fall anywhere into this delicate works, but at the moment, everything seems to be under control.

I started using the Chrome beta build that has extensions. I like it. I’ve always used Firefox, mainly because of the extensions, in particular because of Xmarks. Now there’s Xmarks on Chrome. I would actually use Safari as my preferred browser if there was Xmarks for Windows or Linux. But anyway I like this beta build of Chrome. The only thing is that my gmail doesn’t seem to work on Chrome beta. That’s ironic.

We’re looking to buy an apartment in Manila, as I mentioned. An apartment, primarily because of typhoons, floods, and burglary. A highrise apartment solves all these really major Filipino problems. I think we might wait to buy, however. The housing market first crashed in California and then worked its way westward. It hit Europe. Then last year it hit Dubai. Everybody is talking now about the Chinese housing bubble. I bet you the real estate market in Manila will crash within a few months to a year. Prices have not gone down, but it seems inevitable that they will. Because of the global economic meltdown there are a lot more Kapabayan who are out of jobs and back home in Phils. Thus there are a lot more Kapabayan who can’t meet their mortgage payments or can’t buy a new house. Thus the market’s prices are almost sure to decline, and soon. We do however need a place to put all our stuff. The stuff we’ll be shipping from Dubai, and also our boxes and boxes and boxes of stuff in Capoocan (that came from Saudi). We actually have a lot of stuff. We might rent in the Ortigas neighborhood next to Shangrila Mall. However we have identified an apartment or two that we’re willing to buy if we can make favorable arrangements. I am thinking of forming another branch of the Teggatz Inc. corporate empire, for the purposes of owning the Manila condo. This is a wise move because of tax and liability considerations.

I am very irritated with the management of Citigroup, who have not taken the interests of shareholders into account. However the relevant point of the week is actually the fact that they sold a gazillion shares, which would have been impossible a few months ago. So while the sale price of 3.15 is really irritating for me (I’m heavily in the red at the moment) it is actually, in the long term, quite good news. Also while C seems a laggard, it has gone quietly unnoticed that C’s market capitalization is now over 100 million. Or is it billion. These huge figures blend together in my brain. Also Uncle Same is retaining shares, which actually is good. So while I’m irritated with C, I’m still bullish, and I’m actually going to buy more at this cheap price (for price averaging purposes).

I kept it under my hat for a while, but the big news is we’re moving to Manila in 2 weeks. AURAK has politely let me go. I say “politely” because they gave a good severance package and I found out several other people have been let go, so it appears the reason is because of low student enrollment, ie cost-cutting. It is true that I was wondering what in God’s name I was going to do next semester. So we’re going to Manila as soon as we can make arrangements with the shipping company. We’re going to look into buying an apartment in Makati or Ortigas because we can do so for the same cost as renting, or less. It will take 2 months for the container to reach Manila so we’re going to spend 2-3 weeks in Capoocan, where Tristan will get baptized. Then we’ll go have a much needed beach holiday in Boracay until the shipping container arrives. I don’t have too many plans beyond Boracay at the moment. I have been tremendously stressed getting everything arranged so we can leave. Leaving a country is a rather involved process. Things are now more-or-less arranged except we can’t get in contact with the shipping company, so we can’t set a departure date, so we can’t reserve tickets. Beyond this things are in place and under control. And as I’ve been telling Vanessa, I’m sure the shipping company wants our money and so I’m sure they’ll be in touch soon. Though occasionally in this part of the world, such logic doesn’t work for some inexplicable reason.

Anyway regarding the future, as I said my major plan is Boracay at the moment. The next academic year is August and so there’s not much I can do in regard to employment at the moment. I have sent out resumes here and there.

But that’s the news anyway. Big news eh. We’ve been in a bit of a daze for the last week.

For the record, this blog predicted that Citibank would shortly exit TARP and that Abu Dhabi would bail out Dubai. I’m no brain bank, but for the record. Yep.

I have become very bullish. Before I was moderately or cautiously bullish. Now I’m just plain bullish. I am particularly bullish on the financial sector. This is because the US government cannot let this bubble of good news and growth end. The government will continue injecting stimulus into the economy. The primary beneficiary has to be the financial industry.

At the moment C is swinging around erratically in pre-market trading, as can be expected. In the long term, as I have been discussing for a good month or two, I’m quite bullish on Citigroup. Either this conglomerate is worth nothing, or it’s worth about $15 to $20 a share. And it just exited TARP so I’d lean toward the latter.

It’s the Cheetahhhhhhh’s birthday. He’s 40. God bless. Van gave me a Burberry wallet, which is very fancy.

I like Tiger Woods. Always have actually. I remember back when he won his first Masters. This was when I started to get interested in golf actually, because of Tiger. Now, I don’t generally read the gossip because, for one thing, the Wall Street Journal (my primary newspaper) doesn’t bother with gossip, but also because I just have little interest in the stunts, diets, wardrobes, and marital turmoil of the stars. I’ve been vaguely aware that something was going on with Tiger because he’s in the news a lot, but I had better things to read, so I ignored it. Finally today my curiosity got the best of me. I guess I am interested a little bit in Tiger gossip. So the news apparently is that he has 3 white girlfriends, in addition to his Swedish wife. Eh. I can’t say I care much. My reaction is a little bit the same as with the Clinton/Monica Lewinsky affair. I’m a bit disappointed (thought Tiger was a clean-livin’ kind of guy) but really this is his business. In the case of movie stars, millionaires, etc having mistresses, I’m not sure why this is even considered news. It would almost be more news-worthy if a movie star was always faithful to his wife. Wouldn’t it? I mean, take George Clooney. I like George Clooney. He has a new model girlfriend ever week. You always see pictures of him and his latest girl playing around Lake Como. I can’t even keep up with who his girlfriend is, if I cared to try. Point being, a movie star messing around isn’t really news. Now Clooney isn’t married. Tiger is. So I’m a bit disappointed in you, Tiger. But I’ll still watch you play golf.